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What is the Expected Goals Method?

Expected Goals (xG) tells us the quantity and quality of chances that each team creates from a match.

• (xG) data is simply a way of quantifying these scoring chances.

• A football match is essentially a series of attacks from each team on the other team. The sides who have the highest quantity and highest quality of attacks are clearly the best sides. This is what the Expected Goals method measures.

• However, goals are almost as rare as they are important.

• Assessing the nature of the chances that each team created will reveal which side has deserved to win, regardless of the actual scoreline.

• The Expected Goals method cuts right through to the core of football thinking. The ability of sides to threaten the opposition goal, whilst simultaneously preventing danger to their own goal, is what separates good teams from bad teams.

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